Discussions are raging about whether a new elected mayor could be created who would be in charge of decision-making in Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Councils in these areas have been in discussions for well over a year on the creation of a new regional council called a mayoral strategic authority.
But at a meeting this week (Wednesday, June 17) the Liberal Democrat leadership of Oxfordshire County Council purportedly withdrew support for a transitional authority, putting the project in doubt.
Thames-wide council in doubt after one leader purportedly withdraws support
Nevertheless, the possible creation of a mayor for the Thames Valley still prompts a question - which party would win the election?
A prediction can be arrived at using actual election results and estimates.
The last area-wide election was for the Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for Thames Valley in 2024, which was won by Matthew Barber, the incumbent Conservative.
Mr Barber won the election despite 2024 being difficult for the Conservatives, with Labour winning the general election and the Tories losing 251 MPs and over 450 councillors.
But in this scenario, votes from Buckinghamshire have to be removed, as that county is not part of negotiations for a strategic authority.
Doing this would have seen Tim Starkey from the Labour Party winning with a 4,960-vote majority.
However, that does not give a full picture, as Swindon Borough Council is involved in the proposal for a Thames Valley strategic authority.
Swindon Borough Council elections took place in May this year, with the Conservatives beating Labour to become the largest party.
The Conservatives received 51,126 votes, beating Labour into second with 48,189 votes, and Reform UK coming third with 45,670 votes.
Even with the additional Conservative votes from Swindon, Labour would still be on top.
A prospective mayoral election is set for 2028, if plans for the authority actually go ahead.
It would happen in a political landscape that changed mere months after the July 2024 general election, with Reform UK consistently topping national polls and the Green Party gathering left-wing support under Zack Polanski, who became leader in September last year, and Hannah Spencer's win in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in February.
Neither party fielded candidates for the 2024 PCC election - and PCCs are due to be abolished altogether in May 2028.
The latest actual indications for how Reform UK and the Green Party perform across Oxfordshire and Berkshire would be the 2024 general election results.
Totting up votes becomes complex at this point.
While the Green Party ran in all constituencies in the two counties, Reform UK did not stand in Earley and Woodley, Maidenhead and Oxford East.
When counting all of these figures, Labour are predicted to win the first Thames Valley mayoral election.
You can see all of these figures in the table below:
The Conservatives would come in second place, with Reform UK in third.
Despite effectively controlling seven councils in Oxfordshire and Berkshire, the Liberal Democrats would come fourth according to this projection.
Included in the tallies are Reform UK notional votes of 8,400 in Earley and Woodley, 6,600 in Maidenhead and 3,000 in Oxford East.
Share