If the law of averages are anything to go by, Reading FC should be safe this season.

Having looked through the last eight seasons, since 2013/14 when Reading dropped down to the Championship from the Premier League, the majority of bottom threes at the 38-game point are the same as they are at the end of the 46-game campaign.

Looking at all of this data, 83.3 per cent of those in the bottom three come May are already in there by this point

In fact, more specifically, in five of the eight seasons, all three relegation places finished with the same teams that were in them by 38 matches.

In two of the remaining three seasons, two of the three spaces went to those already in the bottom three, with the Doncaster Rovers in 2014 and Barnsley in 2018 being the unlucky ones to drop into the relegation zone in the final eight matches.

Reading Chronicle:

The only anomaly season, 2019/20, had two teams drop into the bottom three and be relegated within the final eight matches, but there are many extenuating circumstances.

For one, there had been a three-month period in which football had ceased due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Alongside the difficulties that this brought everyone, some sides had key players refuse to play post-lockdown, such as Charlton Athletic and talisman striker Lyle Taylor.

Meanwhile Wigan Athletic, who finished the season second from bottom, were deducted 12 points for entering administration despite sitting comfortably in 13th with one game to go.

Luton Town, who were sat rock-bottom and five points adrift of safety at 38 matches, lost just once post-lockdown, 0-5 at the Royals, and survived comfortably in 19th by the end of the season.

Take a look at the breakdown and let us know in the comments below if you think the Royals will survive this season.



After 38 games:    21st- Charlton Athletic- 35 points
                              22nd- Barnsley- 35 points
                              23rd- Millwall- 35 points
                              24th- Yeovil Town- 32 points

After 46 games:     21st- Birmingham City- 44 points
                              22nd- Doncaster Rovers- 44 points
                              23rd- Barnsley- 39 points
                              24th- Yeovil Town- 37 points


After 38 games:     21st- Rotherham United- 40 points
                              22nd- Wigan Athletic- 35 points
                              23rd- Millwall- 33 points
                              24th- Blackpool- 23 points

After 46 games:     21st- Rotherham United- 46 points
                              22nd- Millwall- 41 points
                              23rd- Wigan Athletic- 39 points
                              24th- Blackpool- 26 points


After 38 games:     21st- Fulham- 41 points
                              22nd- MK Dons- 37 points
                              23rd- Charlton Athletic- 35 points
                              24th- Bolton Wanderers- 36 points

After 46 games:     21st- Rotherham United- 49 points
                              22nd- Charlton Athletic- 40 points
                              23rd- MK Dons- 39 points
                              24th- Bolton Wanderers- 30 points


After 38 games:     21st- Bristol City- 41 points
                              22nd- Blackburn Rovers- 40 points
                              23rd- Wigan Athletic- 34 points
                              24th- Rotherham United- 17 points

After 46 games:     21st- Nottingham Forest- 51 points
                              22nd- Blackburn Rovers- 51 points
                              23rd- Wigan Athletic- 42 points
                              24th- Rotherham United- 23 points


After 38 games:     21st- Barnsley- 34 points
                              22nd- Birmingham City- 33 points
                              23rd- Sunderland- 31 points
                              24th- Burton Albion- 30 points

After 46 games:     21st- Bolton Wanderers- 43 points
                              22nd- Barnsley- 41 points
                              23rd- Burton Albion- 41 points
                              24th- Sunderland- 37 points


After 38 games:    21st- Reading- 37 points
                              22nd- Rotherham United- 40 points
                              23rd- Bolton Wanderers- 32 points
                              24th- Ipswich Town- 31 points

After 46 games:    21st- Millwall- 44 points
                              22nd- Rotherham United- 40 points
                              23rd- Bolton Wanderers- 32 points
                              24th- Ipswich Town- 31 points


After 38 games:     21st- Middlesbrough- 41 points
                              22nd- Hull City- 41 points
                              23rd- Barnsley- 37 points
                              24th- Luton Town- 36 points

After 46 games:    21st- Barnsley- 49 points
                              22nd- Charlton Athletic- 48 points
                              23rd- Wigan Athletic- 47 points
                              24th- Hull City- 45 points


After 38 games:    21st- Birmingham City- 38 points
                              22nd- Rotherham United- 35 points
                              23rd- Sheffield Wednesday- 32 points
                              24th- Wycombe Wanderers- 27 points

After 46 games:    21st- Derby County- 44 points
                              22nd- Wycombe Wanderers- 43 points
                              23rd- Rotherham United- 42 points
                              24th- Sheffield Wednesday- 41 points


Reading Chronicle:


This is far from concrete with eight matches still to play, but the Royals should fancy those odds!