If the law of averages are anything to go by, Reading FC should be safe this season.
Having looked through the last eight seasons, since 2013/14 when Reading dropped down to the Championship from the Premier League, the majority of bottom threes at the 38-game point are the same as they are at the end of the 46-game campaign.
Looking at all of this data, 83.3 per cent of those in the bottom three come May are already in there by this point
In fact, more specifically, in five of the eight seasons, all three relegation places finished with the same teams that were in them by 38 matches.
In two of the remaining three seasons, two of the three spaces went to those already in the bottom three, with the Doncaster Rovers in 2014 and Barnsley in 2018 being the unlucky ones to drop into the relegation zone in the final eight matches.
The only anomaly season, 2019/20, had two teams drop into the bottom three and be relegated within the final eight matches, but there are many extenuating circumstances.
For one, there had been a three-month period in which football had ceased due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Alongside the difficulties that this brought everyone, some sides had key players refuse to play post-lockdown, such as Charlton Athletic and talisman striker Lyle Taylor.
Meanwhile Wigan Athletic, who finished the season second from bottom, were deducted 12 points for entering administration despite sitting comfortably in 13th with one game to go.
Luton Town, who were sat rock-bottom and five points adrift of safety at 38 matches, lost just once post-lockdown, 0-5 at the Royals, and survived comfortably in 19th by the end of the season.
Take a look at the breakdown and let us know in the comments below if you think the Royals will survive this season.
2013/14
After 38 games: 21st- Charlton Athletic- 35 points
22nd- Barnsley- 35 points
23rd- Millwall- 35 points
24th- Yeovil Town- 32 points
After 46 games: 21st- Birmingham City- 44 points
22nd- Doncaster Rovers- 44 points
23rd- Barnsley- 39 points
24th- Yeovil Town- 37 points
2014/15
After 38 games: 21st- Rotherham United- 40 points
22nd- Wigan Athletic- 35 points
23rd- Millwall- 33 points
24th- Blackpool- 23 points
After 46 games: 21st- Rotherham United- 46 points
22nd- Millwall- 41 points
23rd- Wigan Athletic- 39 points
24th- Blackpool- 26 points
2015/16
After 38 games: 21st- Fulham- 41 points
22nd- MK Dons- 37 points
23rd- Charlton Athletic- 35 points
24th- Bolton Wanderers- 36 points
After 46 games: 21st- Rotherham United- 49 points
22nd- Charlton Athletic- 40 points
23rd- MK Dons- 39 points
24th- Bolton Wanderers- 30 points
2016/17
After 38 games: 21st- Bristol City- 41 points
22nd- Blackburn Rovers- 40 points
23rd- Wigan Athletic- 34 points
24th- Rotherham United- 17 points
After 46 games: 21st- Nottingham Forest- 51 points
22nd- Blackburn Rovers- 51 points
23rd- Wigan Athletic- 42 points
24th- Rotherham United- 23 points
2017/18
After 38 games: 21st- Barnsley- 34 points
22nd- Birmingham City- 33 points
23rd- Sunderland- 31 points
24th- Burton Albion- 30 points
After 46 games: 21st- Bolton Wanderers- 43 points
22nd- Barnsley- 41 points
23rd- Burton Albion- 41 points
24th- Sunderland- 37 points
2018/19
After 38 games: 21st- Reading- 37 points
22nd- Rotherham United- 40 points
23rd- Bolton Wanderers- 32 points
24th- Ipswich Town- 31 points
After 46 games: 21st- Millwall- 44 points
22nd- Rotherham United- 40 points
23rd- Bolton Wanderers- 32 points
24th- Ipswich Town- 31 points
2019/20
After 38 games: 21st- Middlesbrough- 41 points
22nd- Hull City- 41 points
23rd- Barnsley- 37 points
24th- Luton Town- 36 points
After 46 games: 21st- Barnsley- 49 points
22nd- Charlton Athletic- 48 points
23rd- Wigan Athletic- 47 points
24th- Hull City- 45 points
2020/21
After 38 games: 21st- Birmingham City- 38 points
22nd- Rotherham United- 35 points
23rd- Sheffield Wednesday- 32 points
24th- Wycombe Wanderers- 27 points
After 46 games: 21st- Derby County- 44 points
22nd- Wycombe Wanderers- 43 points
23rd- Rotherham United- 42 points
24th- Sheffield Wednesday- 41 points
This is far from concrete with eight matches still to play, but the Royals should fancy those odds!
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